基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)

编号 zgly0001585268

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)

作者 尹占娥  殷杰  张校玮 

作者单位 DepartmentofGeography  ShanghaiNormalUniversity  KeyLaboratoryofGeographicInformationScience  MinistryofEducation  EastChinaNormalUniversity  SchoolofTourismandCityManagement  ZhejiangGongshangUniversity 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2013年03期

年份 2013 

分类号 P429 

关键词 hazardanalysis  hightemperatureextremes  scenario  exposure  China 

文摘内容 China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter’s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days). To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.