编号
zgly0001585428
文献类型
期刊论文
文献题名
基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价(英文)
作者
吴文斌
唐华俊
杨鹏
游良志
周清波
陈仲新
柴崎亮介
作者单位
KeyLaboratoryofResourcesRemoteSensing&DigitalAgriculture
MinistryofAgriculture
InstituteofAgriculturalResourcesandRegionalPlanning
ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences
CenterforSpatialInformationScience
UniversityofTokyo
Inter
母体文献
Journal of Geographical Sciences
年卷期
2011年01期
年份
2011
分类号
F316.11
关键词
scenario
foodsecurity
percapitafoodavailability
percapitaGDP
model
assessment
文摘内容
This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that,the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability,which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years,starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions,and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China,most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.