2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

编号 zgly0001645380

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

作者 夏天  吴文斌  周清波  谭文霞  PeterH.VERBURG  杨鹏  叶利明 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofAgri-informatics  MinistryofAgriculture/InstituteofAgriculturalResourcesandRegionalPlanning  ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences  KeyLaboratoryforGeographicalProcessAnalysis&Simulation  HubeiProvince/CollegeofUrban& 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2018年11期

年份 2018 

分类号 F301.24 

关键词 NortheastChina  landuse  spatio-temporalchange  scenario  ecosystemservice 

文摘内容 Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.