中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性（英文）

编号 zgly0001655953

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性（英文）

作者 马丹阳  邓浩宇  尹云鹤  吴绍洪  郑度 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofLandSurfacePatternandSimulation  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences  HenanProvinceDevelopmentandReformCommission 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2019年01期

年份 2019 

分类号 P467 

关键词 arid/humidpatterns  climatechange  sensitivity  aridityindex  China 

文摘内容 Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term(2070–2099) relative to the baseline period(1981–2010). Under 2℃ and 4℃ warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.