中国地质灾害伤亡事件的空间格局及影响因素（英文）

编号 zgly0001583868

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 中国地质灾害伤亡事件的空间格局及影响因素（英文）

作者 王瑛  林齐根  史培军 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofEnvironmentalChangeandNaturalDisasterofMinistryofEducation  BeijingNormalUniversity  AcademyofDisasterReductionandEmergencyManagement  BeijingNormalUniversity 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2018年03期

年份 2018 

分类号 P694 

关键词 landslide  casualtyevent  spatialpattern  influencingfactors  counties  China 

文摘内容 Analysis of casualties due to landslides from 2000 to 2012 revealed that their spatial pattern was affected by terrain and other natural environmental factors, which resulted in a higher distribution of landslide casualty events in southern China than in northern China. Hotspots of landslide-generated casualties were in the western Sichuan mountainous area and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, southeast hilly area, northern part of the loess hilly area, and Tianshan and Qilian Mountains. However, local distribution patterns indicated that landslide casualty events were also influenced by economic activity factors. To quantitatively analyse the influence of natural environment and human-economic activity factors, the Probability Model for Landslide Casualty Events in China(LCEC) was built based on logistic regression analysis. The results showed that relative relief, GDP growth rate, mean annual precipitation, fault zones, and population density were positively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. Notably, GDP growth rate ranked only second to relative relief as the primary factors in the probability of casualties due to landslides. The occurrence probability of a landslide casualty event increased 2.706 times with a GDP growth rate increase of 2.72%. In contrast, vegetation coverage was negatively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. The LCEC model was then applied to calculate the occurrence probability of landslide casualty events for each county in China. The results showed that there are 27 counties with high occurrence probability but zero casualty events. The 27 counties were divided into three categories: poverty-stricken counties, mineral-rich counties, and real-estate overexploited counties; these are key areas that should be emphasized in reducing landslide risk.