2015-2030年中国新型城镇化发展及其资金需求预测（英文）

编号 zgly0001584096

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 2015-2030年中国新型城镇化发展及其资金需求预测（英文）

作者 孙东琪  周亮  李宇  刘海猛  申晓燕  王泽东  王茜茜 

作者单位 InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  FacultyofGeomatics  LanzhouJiaotongUniversity  SchoolofResources&EnvironmentalEngineering  LudongUniversity 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2017年08期

年份 2017 

分类号 F299.2 

关键词 new-typeurbanization  urbanizationinvestment  2015–2030  forecasting  China 

文摘内容 The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows:(1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030.(2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million.(3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development.(4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.