基于多模式集合模拟气候变化对长江流域油菜生产潜力影响研究（英文）

编号 zgly0001645365

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 基于多模式集合模拟气候变化对长江流域油菜生产潜力影响研究（英文）

作者 田展  纪英豪  孙来祥  徐新良  樊冬丽  钟洪麟  梁卓然  FICSHERGunther 

作者单位 ShanghaiInstituteofTechnology  ShanghaiClimateCenter  ShanghaiMeteorologicalBureau  SchoolofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineering  SouthernUniversityofScienceandTechnology  DepartmentofGeographicalSciences  UniversityofMaryland  CollegePar 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2018年11期

年份 2018 

分类号 P467  S565.4 

关键词 climatechange  rapeseedproduction  AEZ  YangtzeRiverBasin 

文摘内容 Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security.In this study,based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways(RCPs) in 2011–2040(2020 s),2041–2070(2050 s) and 2071–2100(2080 s),we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020 s,2050 s,and 2080 s,respectively.The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin.Our simulations revealed that:(1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time;(2) in the middle of this century(2050 s),total rapeseed production would increase significantly;(3) the average production potential increase in the 2050 s for the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939,1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively;(4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi,central and eastern Hubei,northern Hunan,central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.