改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析(英文)

编号 zgly0001585495

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析(英文)

作者 余建辉  张文忠  王岱 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofRegionalSustainableDevelopmentModeling  CAS  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2011年03期

年份 2011 

分类号 F320 

关键词 evaluation  agriculturalpolicy  econometricmodel  China 

文摘内容 Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new agricultural policy. The results show that China’s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD’s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.