引发意大利托斯卡纳区滑坡的区域降水阈值体系的定义——统计与环境分析(英文)

编号 zgly0001585837

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 引发意大利托斯卡纳区滑坡的区域降水阈值体系的定义——统计与环境分析(英文)

作者 ROSIAscanio  SEGONISamuele  CATANIFilippo  CASAGLINicola 

作者单位 DepartmentofEarthScience  UniversityofFlorence  Florence  Italy 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2012年04期

年份 2012 

分类号 P426.6 

关键词 landslide  threshold  rainfall  blackboxmodels  predictionintervals 

文摘内容 The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region(Italy).The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration(D) and intensity(I).I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable:it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding.That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds,but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system.Therefore,further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality,magnitude,location,land use and lithology.None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold.This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest ap-proach,in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall pa-rameters(I and D).So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach:four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.