气候变化下水资源适应性管理的多目标方法应用（英文）

编号 zgly0001583994

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 气候变化下水资源适应性管理的多目标方法应用（英文）

作者 洪思  夏军  陈俊旭  万龙  宁理科  石卫 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofWaterCycleandRelatedLandSurfaceProcesses  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences  StateKeyLaboratoryofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringScience  Wuh 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2017年03期

年份 2017 

分类号 TV213.4  P467 

关键词 adaptivewatermanagement  climatechange  multi-object  vulnerability  sustainability  VDD 

文摘内容 This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change.Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system,a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use,water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change.For this study in China,two key indicators are proposed,namely(1) the water resources vulnerability(V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity(S) and resilience(C) of climate change impact on water resources,and(2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment,marked by DD,that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development(EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality(LI).To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management,a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function,called as VDD=DD/V.This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy,called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls,i.e.,the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation,the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Huaihe River.It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function(VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable.Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls,which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability(V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment(DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.