水文监测和季节预报研究——进展与展望（英文）

编号 zgly0001584491

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 水文监测和季节预报研究——进展与展望（英文）

作者 汤秋鸿  张学君  段青云  黄诗峰  袁星  崔惠娟  李哲  刘星才 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofWaterCycleandRelatedLandSurfaceProcesses  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences  StateKeyLaboratoryofEarthSurfaceProcessesandResourceEcology  Colleg 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2016年07期

年份 2016 

分类号 P332  P338 

关键词 hydrologicalmonitoring  hydrologicalforecasting  uncertainty  modeling  remotesensing  climatemodel 

文摘内容 Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.