基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)

编号 zgly0001585850

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)

作者 翟远征  王金生  滕彦国  左锐 

作者单位 CollegeofWaterSciences  BeijingNormalUniversity  EngineeringResearchCenterforGroundwaterPollutionControlandRemediation  MinistryofEducationofChina 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2012年05期

年份 2012 

分类号 TU991.31 

关键词 Beijing  waterconsumedstructure  industrialstructure  waterdemandforecasting 

文摘内容 It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.