青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度分布的情景模拟（英文）

编号 zgly0001678454

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度分布的情景模拟（英文）

作者 范泽孟  白茹玉  岳天祥 

作者单位 StateKeyLaboratoryofResourcesandEnvironmentInformationSystem  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences  JiangsuCenterforCollaborativeInnovationinGeographicalInformation 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2019年10期

年份 2019 

分类号 Q948 

关键词 spatialsimulationmethod  vascularplantspeciesabundance  spatio-temporaldistribution  scenarioanalysis  Qinghai-TibetPlateau 

文摘内容 For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance(VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index were selected to screen the best correlation equation between the VPSA and habitat factors on the basis of 37 national nature reserves on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results show that the coefficient of determination between VPSA and habitat factors is 0.94, and the mean error is 2.21 types per km~2. The distribution of VPSA gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except the desert area of Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, the scenarios of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010(T0),from 2011 to 2040(T2), from 2041 to 2070(T3) and from 2071 to 2100(T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulated results show that the VPSA would generally decrease on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from T0 to T4. The VPSA has the largest change ratio under RCP8.5 scenario, and the smallest change ratio under RCP2.6 scenario. In general, the dynamic change of habitat factors would directly affect the spatial distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future.