中国东北洮儿河流域过去50年气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响（英文）

编号 zgly0001583999

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 中国东北洮儿河流域过去50年气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响（英文）

作者 张凯  李丽娟  白鹏  李九一  柳玉梅 

作者单位 KeyLaboratoryofWaterCycle&RelatedLandSurfaceProcesses  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  SuzhouU 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2017年04期

年份 2017 

分类号 P467  P333 

关键词 influence  streamflowvariation  climatevariability  humanactivities  TaoerRiver 

文摘内容 Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human activities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found: 1) The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985(Period I), 1986 to 2000(Period II) and 2001 to 2011(Period III). 2) Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3) Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4) Climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5) In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will benefit future regional planning and sustainable development.