我国自主贡献林业目标更新对策研究

编号 lyqk008621

中文标题 我国自主贡献林业目标更新对策研究

作者 陈雅如  赵金成 

作者单位 国家林业和草原局经济发展研究中心, 北京 100714

期刊名称 世界林业研究 

年份 2020 

卷号 33

期号 6

栏目编号 2

栏目名称 各国林业 

中文摘要 国家自主贡献是《巴黎协定》的核心减排机制，各缔约国在自主贡献文本中提出了各自的减限排目标和采取的政策与行动。在森林碳汇作用已得到国际社会充分肯定的背景下，目前探讨和分析国家自主贡献林业目标及政策行动的文章较少。文中对已提交的国家自主贡献（NDCs）文本中的林业目标和特征进行分类，分别从定量提出具体数值、未量化的2种类型林业目标进行分析，再以典型代表国家为例，评估林业目标对总体减排目标的贡献。结果表明，在国家自主贡献中明确提出林业目标和具体减排数值的缔约国仅有39个，我国提出了增加森林蓄积量的绝对目标，并且我国土地利用变化和林业碳汇量占总排放量的比例为4.84%~10.03%，森林碳汇还具有很大潜力。基于此，对更新我国自主贡献林业目标提出3条建议，供决策者参考，即明晰林业目标与总减排目标的逻辑关系，预测我国森林碳汇增长的潜力和路径，完善碳市场机制。

关键词 国家自主贡献  气候变化  林业目标  森林碳汇 

基金项目 国家林业和草原局软科学项目“森林碳汇的市场化生态补偿机制研究”（2019131006）。

英文标题 Strategy of Updating the Forestry Targets of Nationally Determined Contributions

作者英文名 Chen Yaru, Zhao Jincheng

单位英文名 National Forestry-Grassland Economics and Development Research Center, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, China

英文摘要 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is the core emission reduction mechanism proposed by the Paris Agreement. Most of the Parties have submitted the emission reduction targets, policies and actions in their NDCs. The importance of forest carbon sequestration has been fully recognized by the international society. However, there are few papers to discuss and analyze the forestry targets and policy actions in NDCs. This paper classifies the forestry targets and characteristics in the submitted NDCs, analyzes the two types of forestry targets which are quantitative and non quantitative, and assess the contribution of forestry targets to the total emission reduction objectives with the examples of typical countries. The results show that only 39 parties have promised a forestry target and specific emission reduction volume. China puts forward an absolute goal of increasing forest stock and the carbon sequestration from LULUCF accounts for about 4.84%-10.03% of the total emissions in China, so the forest carbon sequestration has great potential. Based on the analysis, the paper puts forward 3 suggestions on updating China's forestry target of NDCs, i.e., clarification of the logical relationship between forestry target and the total emission reduction target, forecast of the potentials and pathway of China's forest sink increase and improvement of carbon market mechanism, to provide the science base to decision markers.

英文关键词 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs);climate change;forestry target;forest carbon sequestration

起始页码 50

截止页码 55

投稿时间 2020/4/13

最后修改时间 2020/6/18

作者简介 陈雅如,女,高级工程师,主要从事国家自主贡献、森林碳汇生态补偿领域研究,E-mail:chenyaru09@126.com。

通讯作者介绍 赵金成,男,教授级高级工程师,主要从事林业和草原应对气候变化领域研究,E-mail:15911068103@163.com。

E-mail 赵金成,男,教授级高级工程师,主要从事林业和草原应对气候变化领域研究,E-mail:15911068103@163.com。

分类号 F316.2

DOI 10.13348/j.cnki.sjlyyj.2020.0069.y

参考文献 [1] United Nations. Paris Agreement[EB/OL]. (2017-01-10)[2017-01-10]. http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf.
[2] 冯相昭,刘哲,田春秀,等.从国家自主贡献承诺看全球气候治理体系的变化[J].世界环境,2015,157(6):37-41.
[3] UNFCCC.Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[EB/OL]. (1997-10-01)[2011-06-10]. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf.
[4] UNFCCC. All NDCs submitted 2019[EB/OL].(2019-12-31)[2019-12-31].https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx.
[5] 张晨.国家自主贡献对全球气候治理的影响[J].中国集体经济,2018(16):61-63.
[6] 陈艺丹,蔡闻佳,王灿.国家自主决定贡献的特征研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):295-302.
[7] 王利宁,杨雷,陈文颖,等.国家自主决定贡献的减排力度评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(6):613-620.
[8] 潘勋章,王海林.巴黎协定下主要国家自主减排力度评估和比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(9):8-15.
[9] 洪祎君,崔惠娟,王芳,等.基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(6):621-631.
[10] 郑芊卉,周春国,韦海航,等.各国应对气候变化自主贡献目标及林业对策[J].世界林业研究,2019,32(2):1-6.
[11] FAO-FRA 2015 Country reports[EB/OL].(2015-10-01)[2018-12-30].http://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/documents/en/.
[12] GRASSI G, DENTENER F. Quantifying the contribution of the land use sector to the Paris Climate Agreement[EB/OL]. (2015-03-10)[2018-12-30]. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98451.
[13] FORSELL N,TURKOVSKA O,GUSTI M,et al. Assessing the INDCs' land use, land use change, and forest emission projections[J].Carbon Balance and Management,2016,11(1):26. DOI:10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3.
[14] 肖文发,朱建华,戴广翠,等.中国碳汇潜力与林业发展战略研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2017:27-32.
[15] 何建坤.《巴黎协定》后全球气候治理的形势与中国的引领作用[J].中国环境管理,2018,10(1):9-14.
[16] 祁悦,柴麒敏,刘冠英,等.发达国家2020年前应对气候变化行动和支持力度盘点[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(5):522-528.
[17] 柴麒敏,傅莎,祁悦,等.应对气候变化国家自主贡献的实施、更新与衔接[J].中国发展观察,2018(10):25-29.
[18] GRASSI G,HOUSE J,DENTENER F,et al.The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7(3):220-226.

PDF全文 浏览全文