Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

编号 030025601

推送时间 20200914

研究领域 森林经理 

年份 2020 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

来源期刊 EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT

期 第256期

发表时间 20200728

关键词 Extremes;  Regional climate change;  CORDEX;  MENA;  Heat waves;  Drought; 

摘要 This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Model capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought and high precipitation extremes. Projected changes indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. A drying is projected in the north-west and moistening in the north-east along the Mediterranean side of the region. Projected regional warming is found at the rate of about 0.2 degrees C/decade to 0.5 degrees C/decade over land depending on the scenario. Drought is expected to increase in the northern half of the region independently from the index used, but with a higher rate in the case of the index accounting for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes. ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region to host global hot spots for drought in the late twenty-first century.

服务人员 付贺龙

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