Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

编号 010035303

推送时间 20220725

研究领域 森林生态 

年份 2022 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

来源期刊 forest

期 第353期

发表时间 20220703

关键词 Horsfieldia tetratepala;  maximum entropy model;  species distribution;  habitat suitability;  shared socioeconomic pathways;  endangered species; 

摘要 Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation. View Full-Text

服务人员 王璐

服务院士 蒋有绪

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