Application of integrated Korean?forest?growth?dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering?forest?management scenarios and budget

编号 030037601

推送时间 20230102

研究领域 森林经理 

年份 2022 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Application of integrated Korean?forest?growth?dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering?forest?management scenarios and budget

来源期刊 CARBON BALANCE AND MANAGEMENT

期 第376期

发表时间 20220601

关键词 Forest growth model;  Forest management;  CO2 sequestration;  NDC;  Forest budget;  Climate change; 

摘要 Background Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural?growth?can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low?growth?of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the?forest?sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean?forest?growth?model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and?forest?management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on?forest?growth?and CO2 sequestration. Results?Forest?growth?was predicted to gradually decline, and CO2 sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO(2) year(-1) in 2030 and 27 million tCO(2) year(-1) in 2050 can be achieved if ideal?forest?management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current?forest?management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets. Conclusions The?growth?trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based?forest?management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation.

服务人员 付贺龙

服务院士 唐守正

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