Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future-The Case of Xinjiang

编号 030036805

推送时间 20221107

研究领域 森林经理 

年份 2022 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future-The Case of Xinjiang

来源期刊 AGRICULTURE-BASEL

期 第368期

发表时间 20220904

关键词 carbon sequestration;  different scenarios;  land use;  sustainable development;  Xinjiang; 

摘要 China's double carbon initiative faces huge challenges, and understanding the carbon sequestration service of terrestrial ecosystems under future interannual regional land use change is important to respond to China's carbon policy effectively. Previous studies have recognized the important impact of land use/land cover (LULC) planning on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem services (ESs). However, exploring trends in carbon sequestration under sustainable development scenarios that combine economic and ecological development, particularly the mechanisms that balance the supply and demand of carbon sequestration, still requires in-depth exploration in different geographical contexts. In this study, we present the LULC simulation framework from 2000 to 2030 for four different development scenarios in the Xinjiang region, located in an important Belt and Road region, including business as usual (BAU), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development with both economic and ecological development (SD). Our results suggest that both the supply and demand of carbon stock in Xinjiang will increase in 2025 and 2030, with the demand exceeding the supply. However, our scenario planning mitigates the supply and demand deficit situation for carbon sequestration in the context of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. In summary, our study's findings will enrich the study of carbon sequestration under future scenarios in the Belt and Road region. Xinjiang should pay more attention to the dynamic changes in landscape type structure and its carbon storage supply and demand caused by cultivated land expansion. Among the four scenarios, the spatial difference between carbon storage supply and demand based on the SD scenario is the smallest, which is more in line with the high-quality development of regional ecological security in Xinjiang.

服务人员 付贺龙

服务院士 唐守正

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