Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change

编号 030024602

推送时间 20200706

研究领域 森林经理 

年份 2020 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change

来源期刊 COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY

期 第246期

发表时间 20200511

关键词 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY;  CHANGE IMPACTS;  INSECT;  FOOD;  VULNERABILITY;  AGRICULTURE;  EUROPE;  PREDICTION;  INVASIONS;  RESPONSES; 

摘要 Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.

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