华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)

编号 zgly0001585763

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)

作者 陈朝  吕昌河  范兰 

作者单位 InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2012年03期

年份 2012 

分类号 F301  F224 

关键词 farmlandchanges  drivingfactors  Logisticregressionmodel 

文摘内容 Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.