Modeling Tree Growth Responses to Climate Change: A Case Study in Natural Deciduous Mountain Forests

编号 010037503

推送时间 20221226

研究领域 森林生态 

年份 2022 

类型 期刊 

语种 英语

标题 Modeling Tree Growth Responses to Climate Change: A Case Study in Natural Deciduous Mountain Forests

来源期刊 forest

期 第375期

发表时间 20221031

关键词 biotic and abiotic factors;  climate change;  Hyrcanian Forest;  machine learning;  RCP scenarios; 

摘要 Climate change has significant effects on forest ecosystems around the world. Since tree diameter increment determines forest volume increment and ultimately forest production, an accurate estimate of this variable under future climate change is of great importance for sustainable forest management. In this study, we modeled tree diameter increment under the effects of current and expected future climate change, using multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks and linear mixed-effect model in two sites of the Hyrcanian Forest, northern Iran. Using 573 monitoring fixed-area (0.1 ha) plots, we measured and calculated biotic and abiotic factors (i.e., diameter at breast height (DBH), basal area in the largest trees (BAL), basal area (BA), elevation, aspect, slope, precipitation, and temperature). We investigated the effect of climate change in the year 2070 under two reference scenarios; RCP 4.5 (an intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (an extreme scenario) due to the uncertainty caused by the general circulation models. According to the scenarios of climate change, the amount of annual precipitation and temperature during the study period will increase by 12.18 mm and 1.77 °C, respectively. Further, the results showed that the impact of predicted climate change was not very noticeable and the growth at the end of the period decreased by only about 7% annually. The effect of precipitation and temperature on the growth rate, in fact, neutralize each other, and therefore, the growth rate does not change significantly at the end of the period compared to the beginning. Based on the models’ predictions, the MLP model performed better compared to the linear mixed-effect model in predicting tree diameter increment.

服务人员 王璐

服务院士 蒋有绪

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